United States Oil (USO) recoups Friday’s losses and then some
Oil futures pared earlier gains on Monday to settle modestly higher as tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia linked to a missing dissident journalist appeared to ease.
Worries about outlook for crude demand also kept price gains in check, analysts said.
November West Texas Intermediate crude CLX8, +0.14% rose 44 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $71.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a high of $72.70. It fell about 4% last week. December Brent crude LCOZ8, +0.31% the global benchmark, added 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.78 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, after a 4.4% drop last week.
In an interview on Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened “severe punishment” if an investigation finds the kingdom in any way involved in the disappearance of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.
Data from Baker Hughes BHGE, -0.52% Friday showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil, which offers a peek at output activity, climbed by 8 to 869 this week.
A monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday showed expectations for a rise of 98,000 barrels a day in crude-oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays in November to 7.714 million barrels a day.
Back on Nymex Monday, November gasoline RBX8, +0.44% rose 0.1% to $1.944 a gallon, while heating oil HOX8, +0.23% for the same month added 0.2% to $2.326 a gallon. November natural gas NGX18, +2.10% jumped 2.6% to $3.242 per million British thermal units.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.82.
The projected upper bound is: 15.79.
The projected lower bound is: 14.51.
The projected closing price is: 15.15.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.4917. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.010 at 15.130. Volume was 10% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.120 15.171 14.970 15.130 22,378,020
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.55 14.70 13.71
Volatility: 28 28 29
Volume: 23,470,906 18,734,138 20,093,368
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 10.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods.