United States Oil (USO) Iran sanctions return to focus

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								United States Oil (USO) Iran sanctions return to focus

United States Oil (USO) Iran sanctions return to focus

Oil prices on Wednesday clawed back some of their hefty losses from the day before as the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran came back into focus.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $76.76 a barrel at 0452 GMT, 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, above their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement.

Brent closed down 4.3 percent and WTI dropped 4 percent in the previous session.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 14.74.

The projected lower bound is: 13.34.

The projected closing price is: 14.04.


								United States Oil (USO) Iran sanctions return to focus

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 4 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.0605. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -164.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.700 at 14.040. Volume was 125% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 31% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.360 14.390 13.930 14.040 46,733,944

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.86 14.77 13.78
Volatility: 37 30 30
Volume: 25,574,764 19,423,994 20,509,286

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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