United States Oil (USO) concerns over the potential for tighter crude supplies

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								United States Oil (USO) concerns over the potential for tighter crude supplies

United States Oil (USO) concerns over the potential for tighter crude supplies

U.S. oil futures dropped below $64 a barrel on Thursday to mark the lowest settlement since early April. Further signs of growing global production continue to ease concerns over the potential for tighter crude supplies, with the official start of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil next week. December West Texas Intermediate oil CLZ8, +0.19% dropped $1.62, or 2.5%, to settle at $63.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 14.12.

The projected lower bound is: 12.77.

The projected closing price is: 13.44.


								United States Oil (USO) concerns over the potential for tighter crude supplies

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 12.7247. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 28.79. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -140.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.330 at 13.460. Volume was 72% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 58% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13.860 13.860 13.370 13.460 36,053,912

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.15 14.79 13.82
Volatility: 34 29 30
Volume: 25,788,040 19,806,836 20,724,184

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition.

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