Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) falls back after new higher high

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								Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) falls back after new higher high

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) falls back after new higher high

USD/JPY’s bounce from the lows of mid-October is under threat, although we saw weakness towards the end of last week that resolved in a short-term move higher.

A higher high has been created in the move from the October lows, so any dip that holds above ¥112 could be a buying opportunity.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 113.61.

The projected lower bound is: 111.24.

The projected closing price is: 112.43.


								Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) falls back after new higher high

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.0189. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.400 at 112.400. Volume was 16% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.810 112.840 111.930 112.400 122,053

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.32 112.02 109.80
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 119,487 106,220 108,737

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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