GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) safe-haven demand for gold

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								GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) safe-haven demand for gold

GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) safe-haven demand for gold

Gold prices are trading modestly higher in early-afternoon U.S. trading Thursday. Today, a host of worries on the geopolitical front rose to the surface to put strong pressure on the U.S. stock market and produce some safe-haven demand for gold, which began to surface in late-morning action. December gold futures were last up $3.00 an ounce at $1,230.50. December Comex silver was last down $0.043 at $14.62 an ounce.

Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $1,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,233.60 and then at this week’s high of $1,236.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,220.40 and then at $1,212.00.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1,252.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1,199.35.

The projected closing price is: 1,225.75.


								GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) safe-haven demand for gold

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.3376. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 3.200 at 1,225.480. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,221.6101,230.1101,218.0401,225.480 18,143

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,211.32 1,199.40 1,275.46
Volatility: 17 14 12
Volume: 1,814 363 91

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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