GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Hits 12-Week High
Gold prices are holding moderate gains in early-afternoon U.S. trading Monday. Early on, prices hit a 10-week high. Some more safe-haven demand, technical buying and short covering are boosting the yellow metal again today. The bulls have technical strength and momentum to suggest more gains are coming in the near term. December gold futures were last up $8.00 an ounce at $1,230.40. December Comex silver was last up $0.09 at $14.72 an ounce.
Technically, December gold futures last week saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. This suggests a price uptrend can be sustained, probably at least into the end of this year. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage for the first time in months. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,236.90 and then at $1,240.00. First support is seen at $1,225.00 and then at today’s low of $1,220.40.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1,253.95.
The projected lower bound is: 1,201.05.
The projected closing price is: 1,227.50.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.2256. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 190.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 9.550 at 1,227.080. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 5% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,204.08 1,198.69 1,276.85
Volatility: 18 14 12
Volume: 1,815 363 91
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.