Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forming a base above the 12.13 level

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								Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forming a base above the 12.13 level

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forming a base above the 12.13 level

The Euro extended losses last week as a host of factors pushed it lower but the market now looks to have begun carving out a base close to its one-year lows in the 1.13 area.

Italy’s budget row with the EU commission and another surprise fall in business confidence both weighed on the market.

EUR/USD almost reached the 1.1301 August and 2018 low last week but just about managed to keep above it and after a last-minute rebound, it closed the week above 1.14.

1.1301 has become something of a Rubicon for the pair so a breach below this level would signal a capitulation and reinforce the downtrend. A hold – as now looks possible – would probably mean the pair has carved out a significant low.

We are bullish given the broader technical picture on the monthly chart. The hammer formed in August remains an intact bullish signpost that could herald a reversal higher. The failed pivot swing in September is also an indicator of recovery.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.16.

The projected upper bound is: 1.15.

The projected lower bound is: 1.13.

The projected closing price is: 1.14.


								Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) forming a base above the 12.13 level

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.2568. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 52 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -103.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.140. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 19% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.141 1.141 1.138 1.140 2,740

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.15 1.16 1.19
Volatility: 7 8 8
Volume: 120,980 130,947 138,685

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 4.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of EUR= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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