Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trade surplus surges, lifts fundamental value

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								Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trade surplus surges, lifts fundamental value

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trade surplus surges, lifts fundamental value

The Australian Dollar rose broadly Thursday after official data revealed a sharp increase in the nation’s trade surplus during September, providing a tailwind to a currrency that is also being boosted by a series of positive developments in China.

Australia’s trade surplus rose to $3.02 billion during September, up from $2.34 billion in the previous month and far ahead of market expecations for a balance of $1.71 billion.

The surplus surged after exports rose by 1% to $37.49 billion and imports declined by 1% to $34.47 billion, pushing the positive trade balance even higher to $3.02 billion.

“It’s been a stellar year for Australia’s export sector due to the combination of higher export volumes, buoyant commodity prices and a weaker AUD. Export receipts sit 15.9% higher on year ago levels,” says Gareth Aird, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a note to clients. “This big lift in income is showing up in higher corporate profits in the resources sector which is flowing through to a bigger Government tax take.”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.73.

The projected lower bound is: 0.71.

The projected closing price is: 0.72.


								Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trade surplus surges, lifts fundamental value

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.3637. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 127 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 211.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.720. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.720 0.721 0.720 0.720 2,333

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 13 11 10
Volume: 108,599 107,211 104,271

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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